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The increase of tree canopy cover due to woody plant encroachment and tree plantations modifies both carbon and water dynamics. The tradeoffs between ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and water use with increasing tree cover in different climate conditions, particularly under future climate scenarios, are not well understood. Within the climate transition zone of the southern Great Plains, USA, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) to investigate the combined impacts of increasing tree cover and climate change on carbon and water dynamics in three watersheds representing semiarid, subhumid, and humid climates. Model simulations incorporated two land use modifications (Baseline: existing tree cover; Forest +: increasing evergreen tree cover), in conjunction with two climate change projections (the RCP45 and the RCP85), spanning two time periods (historic: 1991-2020; future: 2070-2099). With climate change, the subhumid and humid watersheds exhibited a greater increase in evapotranspiration (ET) and a corresponding reduction in runoff compared to the semi-arid watershed, while the semi-arid and subhumid watersheds encountered pronounced losses in water availability for streams (>200 mm/year) due to increasing tree cover and climate change. With every 1 % increase in tree cover, both NPP and water use efficiency were projected to increase in all three watersheds under both climate change scenarios, with the subhumid watershed demonstrating the largest increases (>0.16 Mg/ha/year and 170 %, respectively). Increasing tree cover within grasslands, either through woody plant expansion or afforestation, boosts ecosystem NPP, particularly in subhumid regions. Nevertheless, this comes with a notable decrease in water resources, a concern made worse by future climate change. While afforestation offers the potential for greater NPP, it also brings heightened water scarcity concerns, highlighting the importance of tailoring carbon sequestration strategies within specific regions to mitigate unintended repercussions on water availability. 

Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana, redcedar) is a major woody species encroaching upon the native grasslands and forests of the southern Great Plains (SGP), representing a significant threat to regional ecosystem services. Future climate change is anticipated to influence redcedar habitat suitability, changing the probability of further encroachment and reshaping its spatial distribution. In this study, we trained seven Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with redcedar records from the USDA Forest Inventory Analysis database and used the ensemble of these SDMs to simulate redcedar distribution probability under current and future climate conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Results reveal a distinct east-to-west gradient of decreasing distribution probability in the study domain, primarily driven by climate aridity. Throughout the 21st century, the optimal range of aridity for redcedar habitat is projected to shift eastwards by 0.7◦ (≈ 58 km) under the RCP45 climate scenario and 1.3◦ (≈ 108 km) under the RCP85. Accordingly, the suitable habitat will shift eastward by 0.6◦ (≈ 49 km) in the RCP45 and by 1.2◦ (≈ 103 km) in the RCP85. The proportion of unsuitable habitat will increase from 40.2 % of the study domain during 2000 – 2019 to 48 % in the RCP45 and 54.2 % in the RCP85 during 2080 – 2099. Additionally, highly suitable land areas will decrease from 10.4 % of the study domain during 2000 – 2019 to 1.3 % in the RCP45 and 0 % in the RCP85 by the end of this century. This study suggests a low likelihood of further redcedar encroachment in the west of the SGP states under future climates, while anticipating continued expansion in the east, gradually replacing the existing oak forests and rangelands. The findings provide valuable insights for prioritizing WPE management resources and contribute to our understanding of future changes in the SGP vegetation composition and their impacts on ecosystem dynamics. 

Abstract The Aii glycinergic amacrine cell (Aii) plays a central role in bridging rod pathways with cone pathways, enabling an increased dynamic range of vision from scotopic to photopic ranges. The Aii integrates scotopic signals via chemical synapses from rod bipolar cells (RodBCs) onto the arboreal processes of Aii ACs, injecting signals into ON-cone bipolar cells (CBbs) via gap junctions with Aiis on the arboreal processes and the waist of the Aii ACs. The CBbs then carry this information to ON and OFF ganglion cell classes. In addition, the Aii is involved in the surround inhibition of OFF cone bipolar cells (CBas) through glycinergic chemical synapses from Aii ACs onto CBas. We have previously shown changes in RodBC connectivity as a consequence of rod photoreceptor degeneration in a pathoconnectome of early retinal degeneration: RPC1. Here, we evaluated the impact of rod photoreceptor degeneration on the connectivity of the Aii to determine the impacts of photoreceptor degeneration on the downstream network of the neural retina and its suitability for integrating therapeutic interventions as rod photoreceptors are lost. Previously, we reported that in early retinal degeneration, prior to photoreceptor cell loss, Rod BCs make pathological gap junctions with Aiis. Here, we further characterize this altered connectivity and additional shifts in both the excitatory drive and gap junctional coupling of Aiis in retinal degeneration, along with discussion of the broader impact of altered connectivity networks. New findings reported here demonstrate that Aiis make additional gap junctions with CBas increasing the number of BC classes that make pathological gap junctional connectivity with Aiis in degenerating retina. In this study, we also report that the Aii, a tertiary retinal neuron alters their synaptic contacts early in photoreceptor degeneration, indicating that rewiring occurs in more distant members of the retinal network earlier in degeneration than was previously predicted. This rewiring impacts retinal processing, presumably acuity, and ultimately its ability to support therapeutics designed to restore image-forming vision. Finally, these Aii alterations may be the cellular network level finding that explains one of the first clinical complaints from human patients with retinal degenerative disease, an inability to adapt back and forth from photopic to scotopic conditions. 

The Arkansas River and its tributaries provide critical water resources for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and public water supply in the Arkansas River Basin (ARB). However, climate change and other environmental factors have imposed significant impacts on regional hydrological processes, resulting in widespread ecological and economic consequences. In this study, we projected future river flow patterns in the 21st century across the entire ARB under two climate and socio-economic change scenarios (i.e., SSP2-RCP45 and SSP5-RCP85) using the process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). We designed “baseline simulations” (all driving factors were kept constant at the level circa 2000) and “environmental change simulations” (at least one driving factor changed over time during 2001–2099) to simulate the inter-annual variations of river flow and quantify the contributions of four driving factors (i.e., climate change, CO2 concentration, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and land use change). Results showed that the Arkansas River flow in 2080–2099 would decrease by 12.1% in the SSP2-RCP45 and 27.9% in the SSP5-RCP85 compared to that during 2000–2019. River flow decline would occur from the beginning to the middle of this century in the SSP2-RCP45 and happen throughout the entire century in the SSP5-RCP85. All major rivers in the ARB would experience river flow decline with the largest percentage reduction in the western and southwestern ARB. Warming and drying climates would account for 77%–95% of the reduction. The rising CO2 concentration would exacerbate the decline through increasing foliage area and ecosystem evapotranspiration. This study provides insight into the spatial patterns of future changes in water availability in the ARB and the underlying mechanisms controlling these changes. This information is critical for designing watershed-specific management strategies to maintain regional water resource sustainability and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate changes on water availability. 

Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO₂. Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr⁻¹(no CO₂effects/with CO₂effects; “+” denoting wetting). Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr⁻¹(“-” denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr⁻¹(RCP2.6), -0.36/-0.10 km/yr⁻¹(RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr⁻¹(RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO₂emissions [C. R. Schwalmet al.,Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.117, 19656–19657 (2020)]. 

Abstract. Excessive anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs to the biosphere have disruptedthe global nitrogen cycle. To better quantify the spatial and temporalpatterns of anthropogenic N inputs, assess their impacts on thebiogeochemical cycles of the planet and the living organisms, and improvenitrogen use efficiency (NUE) for sustainable development, we have developeda comprehensive and synthetic dataset for reconstructing the History ofanthropogenic Nitrogen inputs (HaNi) to the terrestrial biosphere. The HaNi datasettakes advantage of different data sources in a spatiotemporally consistentway to generate a set of high-resolution gridded N input products from thepreindustrial period to the present (1860–2019). The HaNi dataset includes annual ratesof synthetic N fertilizer, manure application/deposition, and atmospheric Ndeposition on cropland, pasture, and rangeland at a spatial resolution of5 arcmin × 5 arcmin. Specifically, the N inputs are categorized, according to the Nforms and land uses, into 10 types: (1) NH4+-N fertilizer applied to cropland,(2) NO3--N fertilizer applied to cropland, (3) NH4+-N fertilizer applied to pasture,(4) NO3--N fertilizer applied to pasture, (5) manure N application oncropland, (6) manure N application on pasture, (7) manure N deposition onpasture, (8) manure N deposition on rangeland, (9) NHx-N deposition, and(10) NOy-N deposition. The total anthropogenic N (TN) inputs to globalterrestrial ecosystems increased from 29.05 Tg N yr−1 in the 1860s to267.23 Tg N yr−1 in the 2010s, with the dominant N source changing fromatmospheric N deposition (before the 1900s) to manure N (in the 1910s–2000s)and then to synthetic fertilizer in the 2010s. The proportion of syntheticNH4+-N in fertilizer input increased from 64 %in the 1960s to 90 % in the 2010s, while synthetic NO3--N fertilizerdecreased from 36 % in the 1960s to 10 % in the 2010s. Hotspots of TNinputs shifted from Europe and North America to East and South Asia duringthe 1960s–2010s. Such spatial and temporal dynamics captured by the HaNidataset are expected to facilitate a comprehensive assessment of the coupledhuman–Earth system and address a variety of social welfare issues, such as theclimate–biosphere feedback, air pollution, water quality, and biodiversity. Thedata are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.942069(Tian et al., 2022).